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Direction of Human Progress:arrest Inequality, Empower People, by Dhurjati Mukherjee,4 July 2008 Print E-mail

Open Forum

New Delhi, 4 July 2008

Direction of Human Progress

arrest Inequality, Empower People

By Dhurjati Mukherjee

Henry George in his brilliant treatise Progress and Poverty (1879) has aptly pointed out that the law of progress throughout human history has been towards the reduction or removal of the grosser inequalities: slavery, hereditary privileges, the substitution of parliamentary for absolute government, the instigation of private judgment in religion for ecclesiastical despotism, equal justice before the law instead of differential justice and so forth. The history of modern civilization is the history of various and indeed bitter struggles of personal, political, economic and social freedom which is still continuing even in the 21st century.

There remains but one signal which is ultimately fatal for any human society that is, inequality and this problem has accentuated during the course of the 20th century. It has rightly been questioned that why amid all the incontestable evidence of the progress of mankind does the misery of the poor increase almost in direct proportion to progress in technology and science and so many spheres of the social order? What must be done to integrate the concerns and needs of the poor into the ambit of progress, if it is really intended for the benefit of human society?

George tried to find the answer solely in the system of ownership of land that prevailed everywhere in the world at that time. According to him: “The ownership of land is the great fundamental factor which ultimately determines the social, political and consequently the intellectual and the moral condition of a people ….. on the land we are born, from it we live, to it we return again – children of the soil as truly as is the blade of the grass or the flower in the field”.

George found the basic and abiding cause of poverty amid riches and progress to lie in individual rather than common ownership of land. It is significant to note here that there was not the slightest question in his mind that all major energies in man and society could be harmoniously directed towards progress or rather would become possible once the problem of land ownership was taken care of. Over the years the availability and utilization of land has become a problem the world over, especially in the Third World countries, and has intensified the conflict for its possession and utilization.

The wanton increase in population during the later part of the 20th century has immensely increased the need for land, which has become scarce day by day. On the other hand, the over exploitation of this vital natural resource has raised a hue and cry the world over on questions of maintaining ecological balance, industrial expansion while at the same time ensuring food to the hungry billions.        

Apart from various disputes and struggles witnessed on questions of land, there is also an acute disillusionment and fear that economic growth has led to depletion of the resources of the earth. It should be remembered that one of the prime assumptions of the modern idea of progress was the invariability of nature – a nature that should remain the same tomorrow as it is today though this may not be practically possible.  

During the last century, the prodigious utilization coupled with destruction of our resources -- -- soil, water, air, minerals, fuels and nutrients – may lead to a situation where we shall have no more of these for use and abuse. This has been echoed by most scientists and environmentalists the world over and particularly since the late 80s and 90s, urging the need to conserve natural resources and stop over-exploitation of these, including land. The reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which were released last year, are an indication of the future state of affairs which has been recognized and accepted all over the world. 

Closely allied to the fear of dwindling resources is the fear for the environment and its effect on human life in the coming years. One may mention here the book of Talbott Page titled The Conservation & Economic Efficiency, which had about three decades back decried the prodigality of the US, admittedly the worst offender in the world in respect of environmental profligacy. The ‘modernized’ nations are today enjoying the monopoly of the earth, the sky and the sea but whether (and when) these benefits would reach the developing countries, feverishly in the process of modernization remains to be seen. This is obviously not quite possible and future trends indicate that consumption of the rich and the powerful has to come down and all forms of conservatism has to be practiced.        

The craving and intense fight for land resources, specially in the Third World, and the future state of the environment are the biggest challenges faced by the human society at this critical juncture. Moreover, in spite of better understanding and implementation of various human rights concerns, the rich nations are at the helm of affairs while in every country this class is becoming prosperous day-by-day but the condition of the poor and the downtrodden is becoming worse. Thus, inequality both at the international and national levels are increasing.   

What then does the meaning of human progress mean for the suffering humanity who is languishing in squalor and poverty? The present consumerist trend – the offshoot of materialist culture prevalent in the West – may sound the death knell to human society. Already, concerns are being expressed of evolving a new developmental model that curbs excessive consumption and waste and limiting human requirements to our needs.  But for this to become a reality, a lot of social transformation and understanding would be needed.

The late Mahbub-ul-Haque, the creator of the Human Development Report and former finance minister of Pakistan, had rightly pointed out: “The basic concept of development is not too much GNP levels, important though that is, but to create an enabling environment in which people can enjoy long, healthy and creative lives”. This is obviously the correct approach but even the Third World countries are caught in the quagmire of higher growth without caring for the concerns of the people at the lowest rung of the ladder.

The Western-induced model of development may only have partial relevance to improve the living conditions of the people. Though eminent economists, (whose names are better not mentioned) talk of alternate models of development, they succumb to pressure of the West, when it comes to implementation of privatization, liberalization that is, making way for foreign entry into the markets of the developing countries, mechanized means of production, displacing thousands of labourers and such other measures that go against the poor and the agrarian community. Even the Western-bred politicians of the Third World do not understand the real picture of poverty and squalor whose grooming and education take them away from the grass-root reality of the rural sector.

One may mention here the Gandhian concept of development which is specially relevant for Third World countries as it visualizes self-supporting rural economies and making them economically strong and independent of its neighbours for its basic wants (like food, clothing, education, basic needs etc.). Similarly, the Buddhist model of development places the individual human being, rather than maximization of economic growth or capital accumulation as the central focus. Though these theories may seem out of tune with the present-day policies of globalization and liberalization, propagated by the West, there is need to seriously ponder with the fact that situations persisting there and in this part of the globe (in Asia and Africa) are completely different. The rampant increase in population, the widening divide between the rich and the poor, between the urban and rural sectors and between the industrial and agricultural class as also the lack of grass-root development are indeed insurmountable problems which cannot be allowed to 

Real development, as advocated by Mahatma Gandhi and many other political thinkers and development strategists, ought to rest on five pillars: it ought to be indigenous, self-reliant, need-oriented, environment friendly and open to institutional change (Sachs, 2000). To achieve this, it is necessary to empower the people and recognize the third sector, represented by the civil society, as a major emerging sector on the development scene. This sector should be instrumental in exploring the potential for mobilizing latent human and physical resources for local developmental projects, initiated and identified at the grass-root level, with people’s participation. This would go a long way in strengthening the local economy and closing the inequality gap as also reducing poverty. 

This strategy of development has to be adopted by the Third World in opposition to the wanton neo-liberal agenda of globalization, which is breaking the very fabric of the lives of ordinary people all over the world and marginalizing the majority. For a real and effective transformation based on the premise of right to development for every human being, an alternative strategy has to involve the people and only the people, their capacities and liabilities, to move ahead with such development that goes against exclusion and inequality and reaches out to all sections of society, specially the majority rural populace who are struggling for survival in poverty and squalor. How and when this becomes a reality is very difficult to answer at this juncture though the crusade is expected to be intensified and carried forward with greater force in the coming days. ---INFA

 (Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

 

 

 

 

Towards Brazen Communalism:NATION’S INTEREST TAKES A BACK SEAT, by Poonam I Kaushish,5 July 2008 Print E-mail

Political Diary

New Delhi, 5 July 2008

Towards Brazen Communalism

NATION’S INTEREST TAKES A BACK SEAT

By Poonam I Kaushish

It never ceases to surprise how our polity is swiftly sinking into the marshy cesspool of politics. Wherein, their world-view and vision ends just at the tip of their opponent-of-the-moment’s nose. If yesterday the sky-rocketing price rise and the rising inflation were due to the faulty financial management of the erstwhile BJP-led NDA Government, today the worsening global oil crisis, simple land transfers and international treaties have been bloodied and singed by religious intolerance. Tragically, the pseudo-secular wheel seems to have turned a full circle. Clearly, communalism is once again the cause celebre this week.

In the past fortnight communal hatred barred its poisonous blood-soaked fangs over an innocuous order by the J&K Government transferring 39.88 hectares of forest land to the Shri Amarnath Shrine Board to erect temporary shelters for thousands of pilgrims who annually trek to the Himalayan cave shrine. Predictably, all hell broke loose with the Muslim-majority Kashmir reacting violently. A section of the Kashmiri Muslims, led by the Hurriyat and other separatist leaders alleged the land transfer was aimed at changing the demography of the region and a “ploy to turn Muslims into a minority in Kashmir.”

Unsurprisingly, the Congress-led Government of Ghulam Nabi Azad hastily revoked the transfer order, which, in turn, provoked an angry backlash from the Hindus, with Jammu burning amidst large-scale violence and protests. The BJP seized the opportunity and the issue to turn the tables on the Congress Government by alleging that it had given into the Muslim separatists’ demand and the “anti-Hindu” nature of the revocation order. In addition, its spokesperson said, “Some forces in the Valley say that allotment of land to the Shrine Board would alter the demography. In fact, it is the separatist forces that changed the demography by driving away the Kashmiri Pandits from there”.

Presenting itself as the defender of secularism and democracy, the BJP and its Sangh Parivar has willy-nilly decided to use the land transfer issue as a major Hindutva plank to campaign against the Congress-led government at the Centre and in the Valley. How? Simple, call for a nation-wide bandh, no matter that it would drive a further wedge between the Hindu-Muslim communities and affect normal life. While Indore continues to burn, parts of Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Maharashtra, Assam and Jharkand witnessed incidents of stone pelting and road blockade, prompting the police to resort to lathicharge.

Like it or not, the BJP hit the bull’s eye when it alleged that the Congress had taken vote-bank politics to a new level and was now playing communities against each other. The Grand Dame of politics and its secular cahoots, both at the Centre and the State were hard-pressed to present a totally weak and unconvincing explanation that the decision to revoke the land transfer order was not ‘communal’. Really, they could have fooled me.

No matter that all were playing the vote-bank card with elections to State Assembly due this November, if not earlier, and the General elections next year. For the Congress revocation of the order was in line with its ‘secular’ image and reasoning and gave a further impetus to its secular credentials and would keep its UPA ‘secular’ allies happy and together. On the obverse, for the BJP, the order would help it win over regional parties as partners also. The Party has been careful not to merely focus on the emotive aspects, but look at the issue as one that jeopardises the country’s secular nature. Thus, it is a win-win situation for all.

Scandalously, the communal battle does not end here. It has, for the first time, taken a bizarre turn where international government treaties are now being given the communal flavour and presented as anti-Muslim or pro-Muslim deal. Instead of the country debating the fracas over the Indo-US nuclear deal,  whether it is in the best national interest or not it has now been hijacked by the so-called ‘secular’ parties, who have dressed it up as a coy bride ready to take India into the new world order.

Before you applaud, not to be outdone, another set of secular parties, read Left and the BSP are behaving like the communal party poopers by asserting that the N deal is anti-Muslim. Asserted the BSP’s Mayawati, the deal is anti-Muslim. 'This deal is being done at the cost of forgoing cheap fuel from Iran. Muslims are strongly opposed to the deal.” Adding, “The Congress and the Samajwadi Party are joining hands to build a united force in UP,” thus making sure that the two don’t have an easy ride. Not only that. To rub in her point Mayawati has met Shia and Sunni clerics who have applauded her stand against America.

Importantly, it is all about political survival not national interest. A political ploy to divide people on religious lines and gain votes! See how sworn enemies have now turned friends. The Samajwadi supremo Mulayam Singh broke his four-year impasse with Sonia Gandhi and went calling on her. And after their 30-minute meeting appeared convinced that the nuclear deal was in the interest of the country! Asserted Mulayam, “We opposed it (nuclear deal), as we did not have any new details. But now these new details have come." What details? And, does it only take 30 minutes to undo three years of prejudice against the deal.

No matter that, the SP buttressed its argument by stating that it had been convinced by former president A P J Abdul Kalam’s elaborate explanation about the benefits of the deal and he had allayed their fears about national sovereignty or foreign policy being compromised. The deal, feels Mulayam now will be useful for medicine and agriculture besides being clean source of power.

However, the game was finally up when Amar Singh made plain his views by stating "communalism (BJP) is a bigger danger than the nuclear deal". Needless to say, the Party’s 39 MPs in Lok Sabha would be crucial for Government’s survival following the Left parties’ withdrawal of support.

Alas, the Amarnath controversy and the signing of the nuclear deal with the US, reveal that the so-called secular or communal parties are rolled in one. For power, they will go to any extent. There is no desire to uphold equal respect for various faiths. Instead unashamedly use religion to increase their so-called popularity with voters. Tragically, our netas seem to suffer no sense of guilt or qualms of conscience. They must think beyond vote-bank politics and look at the perilous implications of their decisions. The country is being pushed towards brazen communalism, ignoring national interest.---INFA

 (Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Tiger Population:HOPE OR END OF ROAD?, by Radhakrishna Rao,5 July 2008 Print E-mail

Sunday Release

New Delhi, 5 July 2008

Tiger Population

HOPE OR END OF ROAD?

By Radhakrishna Rao

Even as the introduction of a tiger and a tigress in the Sariska Tiger Reserve in Rajasthan made history and received wide media coverage, the concern over their numbers decreasing grows. An example is the launching of a campaign by an international airline to create awareness about protecting the Royal Bengal tiger. The airline has offered a special round trip fare from Kolkata to Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok and back as the capital city of West Bengal offers easy access to the thick forests of Sunderbans, which is home to the Royal Bengal tigers.

This apart, the World Bank has launched tiger conservation initiative and has warned that if current trend continues it is likely that the tiger will be the first species of large predator to vanish. ”Since tigers are at the top of the food chain, the conservation of tigers also means preservation of the habitats in which they live and the prey population that support them,” says a statement from the World Bank. Besides, a wildlife monitoring group TRAFFIC warns: “Tigers are now largely being consigned to only protected areas.They are being hit in a big way. It is huge cause of alarm”.

On its part, the Ministry of Forests and Environment has decided to set up four more tiger reserves in the country, to give a boost to the tiger population in the wild and reserves of the country, The 4 reserves will be located at: Sunbeda in Orissa, Sahyadri In Maharastra, Philbit in UttarPradesh and Ratanpari in Madhya Pradesh.

Tiger, the magnificent beast which had once roamed the wild of India as an unchallenged monarch for hundreds of years now, is now edging closer to extinction. In fact, the figures released by the National Tiger Conservation Authority (NTCA) paints a grim picture of the tiger conservation scenario in the country. From around 3,500 tigers in 2002, the number of the big cats has touched an all time low of 1,411.In particular the NTCA has expressed concern over the rapid decline in the tiger population in the reserves and general forest areas of UP, which is now left with just around 100 tigers.

However, the UP Government has questioned the authenticity of NTCA figures saying that it got its “counting wrong”. But at the same time, has agreed to initiate a slew of measures. "A proposal to create a home for the endangered cats in Philbhit forests has been cleared by the Government. The area has good potential to boost tiger population on account of its unique eco system with vast open spaces and sufficient feedstocks for the elegant predators" say sources in the UP Forest Department.

A path-breaking study by the Dehra Dun-based Wildlife Institute of India (WII) says, "Dudhwa-Philbhit has high conservation value since it represents the only tiger population having the ecological and behavioural adaptation of the tiger unique to Terai region". Similarly, Corbett Tiger Reserve shared by UP and Uttaranchal has realised the highest tiger density as compared to other habitats in the country.  In a mere 1,524 sq.km area, it holds 164 tigers. It has 19.6 tigers for every one sq.km. The dense tiger population in the reserve, say conservationists could become a good base to sustain the entire tiger pool in the Shivaliks and Gangetic plains of UP and Bihar.

However, Madhya Pradesh with 300 tigers in its protected areas and forests comes on the top, in so far as the conservation of this beautiful wild animal is concerned. On the other hand, Karnataka has close to 300 big cats and has the potential to pull back the animal from the precipice of certain extinction. "If we keep these zones safe, create inviolate core regions surrounded by a buffer, the tiger can survive. These cores can act as the source of stability for the entire population of surviving tiger," says Rajesh Gopal, Member Secretary, NTCA.

"Poaching in the State's forest has become a serious problem and requires full attention of the police as many international gangs operate from out of here" points out a Senior Superintendent of Police, Special Task Force (STF), UP. The NTCA has thus directed the State Government to arm it forest officials with high-speed radar guns. Even in the reserves of Assam and adjoining north- eastern States, tigers along with elephants fall an easy prey to the bullets of a dozen militant groups which smuggle out wildlife products to fund its arms buying spree.

Way back in 2005, the disappearance of tigers from Sariska Tiger Reserve had created widespread dismay in the country. The Sariska episode led to the creation of the NTCA. Today, about 20 tigers fall prey to the bullets of poachers every year. Tiger population in the forest stretches of UP, which shares its border with Nepal, has become a special target for international gangs of poachers.

Not surprisingly, wildlife conservationists in India believe that it was the success of the Project Tiger which resulted in an appreciable increase in the tiger population that ultimately led to the international poaching syndicates zeroing in on India. The project was launched in 1973 with the aim of pulling back the giant cat from the brink of extinction. Billed as the most ambitious and successful wildlife conservation project launched anywhere in the world, the rigorously implemented project Tiger helped push up the population of this elegant beast to 4,000 by the end of the 80s.

By far the most significant salutary fall out of Project Tiger was the creation of as many as 21 Reserves to protect the big cats in the wild. But in 1992, even as wildlife lovers were busy preparing to celebrate two successful decades of Project Tiger, the shocking reality of the Indian tiger falling prey to poachers' guns was driven home.

Wildlife conservationists are of view that burgeoning demand for tiger bones and its vital organs in return for the cash in the rich Far East is largely to blame for the rapid decline of Indian tigers. For centuries, the traditional medical system in China, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan have been using tiger bones for the production of potions and pills considered to be an effective treatment for rheumatism and nervous disorders. Despite global protests, breweries in Taiwan and China are known to be using tiger bones for producing wines.

The fact that a single tiger can fetch US $60,000 in the illegal wildlife market of the Far East has emboldened poachers to even shoot forest guards. Besides, Indian tiger reserves are also facing a threat from steady human encroachment. The shrinking forest cover is forcing the tigers to intrude into human settlements and we have heard stories of people getting maimed and killed. Instances of agricultural hamlets in the vicinity of tiger reserves poisoning tigers have also come to light.

With tiger-man conflict assuming a serious dimension, the big Indian cat has a bleak future. The disappearance of the spotted and swamp deer that constituted the staple food of the tiger is also another factor contributing to tigers straying into human settlements. In the ultimate analysis, only a multi-pronged action plan of international dimension to be launched on a war footing can alone save the Indian tiger from certain extinction. –INFA

 (Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Decongesting Cities:PLANNERS, PUT IN MORE EFFORTS,by Dhurjati Mukherjee,27 June 2008 Print E-mail

People & Their Problems

New Delhi, 27 June 2008

Decongesting Cities

PLANNERS, PUT IN MORE EFFORTS  

By Dhurjati Mukherjee

Over the next 40 years, India will experience one of the most dramatic settlement transitions in history as its urban population grows from 300 million to over 700 million. By the year 2025, an estimated 70 Indian cities are expected to have a population exceeding one million. These mega regions: Mumbai-Pune (50 million), the National Capital Region of Delhi (30 million+) and Kolkata (30 million) is expected to be among the largest urban conglomerations in the world.

India’s urban population has expanded nearly five-fold over the past decades even as the overall population has increased by 2.5 times. Population is set to triple in the next two decades, according to a report Integrated City Making, of the London School of Economics & Political Science. The influx of people from the rural areas to the urban centres, in search of employment has aggravated the problem as most of the population finds its place in slums and squatter settlements, which are already overcrowded.

Thus, there is a need to upgrade the quality of life in these places where the poorer segments of the population live. While the government has realized the need to make available the basic necessities of life through the Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM), there is also a realization to make cities liveable by focusing on environmental aspects and upgrading of parks and lakes.

Besides, the Centre is formulating a policy for the development of 35 satellite towns around large cities to decongest these places. The process has already started. Delhi’s suburbs such as Gurgaon and Noida are highly developed and now the stress would be on improving Greater Noida, Ghaziabad and Chandigarh’s suburbs, Panchkula and Mohali.

In Kolkata, Salt Lake is already congested and the city is being further extended to Rajarhat on the eastern side, while in the west a township is being planned near Dankuni. While Navi Mumbai cannot deal with the congestion in the main city, development of Thane and Nasik is being planned and in Bangalore, the focus is on Mysore.  

As the outer areas of most mega cities have already been developed, the emphasis is shifted to build satellite townships in the peripheral areas to ease congestion. Around Rs 9,000-10,000 crores will be spent in the next five years, according to the Union Ministry of Urban Development. Of these, 28 towns would have a population of over a million and the rest seven a population of at least four million. This apart, the Ministry is also considering inclusion of a few cities from the North East.

As for investment, for cities of at least four million, it is suggested that the Union government should contribute 50 per cent, and both the State and local bodies 25 per cent each. For cities with a population of over a million, the Centre would contribute 75 per cent of the investment, the State 15 per cent and local bodies 10 per cent.

All these measures are expected to deflect immigrant population from the parent city, decentralize economic activity and ensure effective connectivity with an integrated transport system. This has already happened to a large extent in Kolkata, wherein administrative activity along with IT offices and parks, have shifted to Salt Lake. Similarly, Bangalore has witnessed dispersal of IT activity to its suburbs, while in Delhi most industrial centres and offices have shifted to Gurgaon and Noida. So is the case in Mumbai, wherein steady dispersal of industrial activity has already been accomplished.

However, experts have pointed out that most suburbs have not been properly planned as these lack meaningful waste disposal system, proper drainage or public transport. Besides, there is both power and water shortage. This apart, smaller cities such as  Patna, Siliguri and Guwahati in the east, Ghaziabad and Aligarh in the north, Mysore and Coimbatore in the south and Thane and Nasik in the west, need to be further developed and equipped with proper infrastructural facilities.

Given the above, there is an ongoing debate on how Asian cities would be able to balance economic, environmental and social needs of its people. Urban transformation is a favourite subject, whereby experts the world over are deliberating to formulate strategies for the future. On the one hand, there is all-round pressure to upgrade the living standards of the poor segments of the population and, on the other, the ecological aspects of a city need also to be developed.

The  environmental chaos of cities compounded by air, water and sound pollution have created serious problems along with increasing number of diseases, intrinsic to high pollution levels. Global climate change may exacerbate outdoor air pollution in all Asian cities, including our metros.  Urban environmental problems such as air pollution have, in general, been increasing steadily in low-income countries due to heavy traffic and exhaust as well as industrial emissions, affecting human health. In Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata, the level of urban pollution is high because of the existence of small-scale industries located in residential areas.

Water availability and water pollution is another big problem for cities like Delhi and Kolkata. While the former faces a shortfall of 200 million gallons a day or more than its 32 per cent production, arsenic contamination is a severe problem in Kolkata. Experts believe that rising temperatures and energy demand for cooling, increasing precipitation variability, erratic rainfall, unsustainable mining of groundwater could all make mega urban regions highly unsustainable in spite of growth of income and wealth.

Apart from this, flooding has been accentuated in most urban centres due to poor drainage systems. Recall that the floods in Mumbai in 2005 were exacerbated by blocked canals and drains. Besides, the increased risk of infectious diseases among the poor after floods is also a cause of concern.   

The Asian Coalition for Housing Rights (ACHR), Habitat International Coalition (HIC), Holcim Forum for Sustainable Construction and many other organizations have been organizing campaigns the world-over for making cities sustainable and providing adequate shelter facilities for the poor, as agreed at the Habitat-II international conference at Istanbul. While living conditions of the poor in slums and squatter settlements need to be upgraded, so far city development has concentrated more on beautification and improvement of places, where the rich and the middle income sections reside.  

Planners in the country have somewhat been ambivalent in accepting the centrality of the poor in the process of urban development. The importance of delivering adequate services and equitable access to land and housing to the bulk of the city residents is still a matter of contention. In recent years, demolitions and relocations have been compounding the vulnerability of many urban residents.

However, this was witnessed post 90s following the emergence of city-level political processes – community and people’s movements – from below for better living amenities for the poor in the cities. This has been accompanied by NGOs and judicial activism for upgrading the standard of living as also voicing environmental concerns.

Thus, apart from decongesting cities, proper plans need to be drawn for upgrading living condition in cities and providing basic services to all, specially the poor, who presently are a deprived lot. An environmentally sensitive and liveable city could well be achieved with a little more effort by both planners and State governments. --INFA  

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

 

 

 

Indo-US Nuclear Pact:A SIGNED DEAL OR MISSED OPPORTUNITY?, by Monish Tourangbam,26 June 2008 Print E-mail

Round The World

New Delhi, 26 June 2008

Indo-US Nuclear Pact

A SIGNED DEAL OR MISSED OPPORTUNITY?

By Monish Tourangbam

(School of International Studies, JNU)

The past few days have seen a flurry of activities concerning the Indo-US nuclear deal. After what seemed like a self-enforced reconciliation to the demise of the deal, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh woke up with renewed activism.

Just as the postponement of the June 18 UPA-Left Coordination Committee Meeting to June 25 became public, the Congress and the Left engaged in intense parleys to rope in allies to their sides. But, the anxiously awaited rescheduled meeting, which was stormy, just managed to avert a final showdown. Post-meeting statements only confirm a future meeting.

Even as the official reason given for the postponement of the June 18th meeting was the External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee’s preoccupation with the visiting  Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, there was very little doubt as to the actual reason behind the deferment.   

At least, it was unclear why the scheduling clash was only discovered at the last minute. Quite clearly, the Congress saw reasons miniscule for going ahead with the meeting unless there was some shift from positions that has deadlocked the deal till now. Certainly, it wanted to take the allies along in an effort to break the impasse with the Left. Despite being able to get some crucial faces to come forward in support of the deal, no one seems to be interested in going for early polls. As such, the most popular line around is, “We support the deal, but not at the expense of the Left’s support.”

Even, Congress insiders are found wanting their resoluteness to sacrifice the Government for the sake of the deal, running counter to the vigour of the Prime Minister. Party strategists feel this is the least opportune time to sell the deal as a ‘development issue’ when the party has encountered serious reverses in Karnataka and the issues of inflation, fuel price hike and terrorism are acutely dampening its image.

Interestingly, the UPA Chairperson Sonia Gandhi sees the international oil price hike and its fallout as reason enough for recognizing the importance of nuclear energy. As for Mukherjee, a key intermediary in the talks with the Left, it has been a hectic schedule. He has been attending a number of meetings, in an effort to take the allies along and keep the communication channel open with the Left at the same time.

He even had to delay his Australian tour in the wake of the heated domestic debate. But, his successive meetings with CPM General Secretary Prakash Karat have borne little result, with the latter refusing to budge from the position hitherto maintained.

Karat has repeatedly refused to reconsider anything to do with the operationalisation of the 123 Agreement. He has blatantly warned the Government not to go the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors with the India-Specific Safeguards Agreement Draft.

Mukherjee has been a vocal advocate of the India-US civilian nuclear deal. Speaking at the 107th annual meeting of the Merchants’ Chambers of Commerce in Kolkata in mid-June, in the presence of West Bengal Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee, also a CPM politburo member, he reiterated the need for nuclear power resources.

Commenting that the percentage of power generated from nuclear resources in India was insignificant compared to developed countries like France and the US, Mukherjee dwelt on the need of nuclear energy “to meet our future demands and to allay environmental concerns.” He said that global nuclear power majors like Areva of France have already evinced an interest in setting up nuclear power plants in India.

It is worthwhile discussing the interest shown by both France and Russia in nuclear commerce with India. Both have come out supporting the deal, albeit with caution. The French Ambassador Jerome Bonnafont, left no doubts that an agreement between India and France on civilian nuclear energy cooperation could not be signed without the IAEA nod and the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group (NSG) exemption as it violated international law.

His Russian counterpart Vyacheslav Trubnikov said an India-Russia draft agreement could not be signed as it went against international laws that Russia recognized, thus pointing to the aforementioned pre-requisites. Trubnikov’s comments assume significance in view of the Left’s criticism of India not inking the deal with Russia.

The Left has also criticized the Government’s reluctance to share the text of the safeguards’ agreement. Well, the main irritant for the Left is not the particulars of the draft but the fact that it is tied to the 123 Agreement.

So, what difference would it make if the draft were to be shown? The Left would still stick to “instinctive anti-Americanism” and taking the agreement to the IAEA minus the 123 Agreement would render it useless. Why would the IAEA be interested in discussing a piece of paper that has no future?

As for the Opposition, its emphasis on a redrafting of the deal can mean two things. One, it wants to distance itself from sharing the blame for blocking the nuclear deal with the Left. Two, it wants to keep open the prospect of renegotiating the deal in future, by a “BJP Government”—a view bolstered by its recent electoral performance.

The nuclear deal has been a potent force in the political scene, receiving prime time in all forms of Indian media, unlike the US where the same is not true. The deal lost its steam, the Bush administration nears its last days and the American media preoccupies itself with the presidential nominees. Despite the Bush administration’s commitment to support the deal till its very last days, precisely till January 20 next year, questions remain over the prospect of the deal, with the run-up to the presidential elections overshadowing everything else and the US Congress itself going for fresh elections in November.

It is worthwhile mentioning that Ashley Tellis, one of the key negotiators of the deal and now a key adviser of the McCain campaign, while talking to media persons on June 11, said it would be impossible for the US Congress to clear the deal even if India went ahead and secured the IAEA safeguards agreement.

In fact, it is a period of transition all around, with the impending Indian and US elections and moreover, Mohamed El Baradei, the Director General of IAEA retiring in July. Speculations abound regarding the future of the deal. As Naresh Kumar, a former Indian envoy to Washington, told Reuters before the June 18 meeting was postponed, “Whether the next governments of India and the US negotiate it or renegotiate it, these are things that are in the realm of conjecture.”

When Prime Minister Singh will meet President Bush on the sidelines of the upcoming G8 Summit in Japan, they would think as to what they are drinking to: a successful deal or a missed opportunity? Will the current spurt of activities prove to be the final gasp for the deal? The answer is anybody’s guess. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

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